The possibilities
I am making here a scenario of sorts.
I am looking not at the scenario of the expected elections to replace the vacant position of Cong. Danilo Lagbas of the first congressional district of Misamis Oriental.
I am looking at the elections in 2010 because I personally believe that there is never any special elections to replace my good friend’s place in the Congress.
So what gives?
Let me tell you a not-so-absurd but a realistic situation.
The present governor Oca Moreno, my good friend also, may not run for governor anymore. He could very well run for congressman of the vacated position of the late Cong. Danilo Lagbas and Gov. Oca could come into the limelight in the national scene as a senatoriable. Oscar Moreno hails from Balingasag town of the same first congressional district of Misamis Oriental as that of Sugbongcogon town where the late governor Lagbas hails from.
As I perceive Oca Moreno, he is a very good material to represent Mindanao as a Senator. Oca is an experienced lawyer, a past congressman and an incumbent governor. A leader in his own right and a proven darling of the electorate.
Certainly, for whatever elective position that Oca Moreno takes, he will always win. And the congressional seat of Danilo Lagbas is a welcome place for him. And why so? Because we really need a congressman of the same and even better quality and ability as the previous congressmen of our province.
But who should be governor then of Misamis Oriental? I propose the incumbent Vice Governor Norris Babiera. He is a very qualified and capable candidate for governor.
So who will be the next vice-governor to replace Norris Babiera? It is no other than Kagawad Peter Onabia of the the Sr. Pedro Lechon Manok chain of barbeque stands. He is a self-made man and he is humble and sincere and true to public service. He has provided livelihood to thousands of families of Misamis Oriental with his chicken out-grower program and he will easily overcome any political candidate for vice-governor come 2010.
And where will the Lagbas family come in? The possibilities are endless. We have as a present Kagawad Benedict Lagbas. He was a former mayor of Sugbongcogon and an undefeated politician. He is also humble and sincere in his profession for public service. He could continue as provincial Kagawad in his second term and let one of the children of Danilo Lagbas come in as a Kagawad also of the same district by direct vote or as councilors league representative in the province by being elected first as a Kagawad of Sugbongcogon.
The scenario above only allows a transition stage for 2010. The strength of this political slate will ensure two things, the sure victory for the administration and the sure headache of the opposition. It is well to note this early that the problem of the national opposition is the same with the local opposition of Misamis Oriental and Cagayan de Oro City.
There is no established leader of the local opposition of Misamis Oriental and Cagayan de Oro who could finance or provide the political clout to raise funding for opposition candidates. In fact, their lack of funding, leadership and organization will drive the local opposition into the deep abyss of defeat in 2010.
The alignment of political administration forces, including the possibility outlined above, will not only capitalize on the weakness of the political opposition but will also entrenched some more the political power base of the local administration party.
If the administration party cannot pull each act together and maintain unity, the political opposition will be given a fair chance of victory when at the beginning they had none.
But the elections of 2010 are still almost two years away. Some miracles and twists of fate of some politicians may still happen.
And by then, I could be proven utterly wrong or, on the contrary, surprisingly correct. Lets keep guessing and analyzing to at least help us forget that, once again last Saturday night, the prizes of gasoline and diesel rose by P1.50 while we were asleep.
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